Trump Expresses Confidence in New Nuclear Deal with Russia as Key Treaty Nears Expiration
Trump Expresses Confidence in New Nuclear Deal with Russia as Key Treaty Nears Expiration
In a recent interview with The New York Times, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed optimism about reaching a new nuclear arms control agreement with Russia. His comments come as the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) is set to expire on February 5, 2024. This treaty, which limits the number of strategic nuclear warheads each country can deploy, is currently the only remaining arms control agreement between the two nations.
Trump’s remarks were made during a wide-ranging conversation with The New York Times on Wednesday, January 7. When asked about the impending expiration of New START, Trump downplayed concerns, stating, “If it expires, it expires. We’ll negotiate something better.” His confidence in securing a more favorable agreement reflects his administration’s broader approach to arms control, which has often emphasized renegotiating existing treaties on terms more advantageous to the United States.
The New START treaty, signed in 2010 during the Obama administration, caps the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 for each country. It also limits the number of land-based and sea-based missile launchers, as well as heavy bombers equipped with nuclear weapons. Since its implementation, the treaty has been instrumental in maintaining stability and predictability in the U.S.-Russia nuclear relationship.
However, arms control advocates have expressed concerns about the potential consequences of allowing New START to lapse without a replacement agreement in place. They warn that without the constraints imposed by the treaty, both countries could significantly increase their nuclear arsenals, leading to an arms race and undermining global nonproliferation efforts.
Robert Conrad Jr., a former senior official in the State Department’s Bureau of Arms Control and now chairman of the Board of Directors for the Arms Control Association, noted that there are factions within the Trump administration advocating for a more aggressive approach. “There are people in this administration who would like to see the treaty expire and then move forward with a nuclear buildup,” Conrad said.
Recent developments have further complicated the outlook for U.S.-Russia arms control. In December 2023, the Russian Defense Ministry released footage of its new “Oreshnik” (Iskander-M) hypersonic missile system being deployed in Belarus. This deployment enhances Moscow’s ability to target locations in Europe, a move that has raised alarms among NATO member states. The Oreshnik system was first test-fired in Ukraine in November 2024, with Russian President Vladimir Putin boasting that its speed—reported to be over 10 times the speed of sound—makes it virtually unstoppable by current missile defense systems.
Despite these tensions, there are still opportunities for cooperation. In September 2023, Putin proposed a one-year extension of New START without preconditions, which would have maintained the treaty’s limits until after the U.S. presidential election in November 2024. While Trump did not explicitly reject this offer, his administration has yet to formally respond. When asked by Reuters about whether Trump would consider accepting Putin’s proposal, a White House spokesperson declined to provide a direct answer.
The expiration of New START could have significant implications for global security. Without the treaty’s constraints, both the United States and Russia may feel compelled to expand their nuclear capabilities, potentially leading to increased tensions and instability. Additionally, the collapse of this cornerstone arms control agreement could embolden other nations to pursue more aggressive nuclear weapons programs, further eroding the international nonproliferation regime.
In conclusion, while Trump’s confidence in negotiating a better deal with Russia may be genuine, the stakes are high, and the window for action is narrowing. The international community will be closely watching whether Washington and Moscow can reach an agreement before February 5 to prevent a lapse in nuclear arms control.