AI Infrastructure Investment Driving Global Growth and Labor Transformation, IMF Chief Warns
BANGKOK — The global economy is currently being bolstered by a massive wave of investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, a trend that is helping maintain worldwide economic growth at a rate of approximately 3%, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.
Speaking on Monday during the joint annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank held in Bangkok, Georgieva described the current AI phenomenon as a dual "demand shock" and "investment shock." She noted that this surge in capital expenditure is providing a critical cushion for the global economy, offsetting other headwinds such as energy supply disruptions. The benefits of this trend are particularly pronounced in Asia, where the region's role in providing the necessary hardware for AI is paying dividends. According to the IMF chief, the AI boom is projected to boost the growth rates of developed Asian economies by 0.5 to 1 percentage point, while emerging Asian economies could see an increase of 0.2 to 0.8 percentage points.
However, Georgieva did not shy away from the potential disruptions accompanying this technological leap. Characterizing the rise of AI as a "slow-motion tsunami," she warned that the technology will fundamentally reshape the global landscape, affecting everything from national education systems and government tax structures to the very nature of economic growth. She highlighted a significant structural shift where the economic engine is moving away from human labor toward capital-intensive AI systems.
Regarding the labor market, the IMF estimates that roughly 40% of global employment will be impacted by AI in the long term. This impact is expected to manifest in various ways: some roles will be enhanced by AI tools, others will be downgraded in importance, and some will be replaced entirely. Georgieva pointed out that these shifts are already visible in current employment trends. In the United States, for instance, approximately 10% of job openings now explicitly require AI-related skills. While routine and repetitive tasks are seeing a decline in demand, there is a simultaneous rise in low-wage positions tied to the physical construction of AI infrastructure and the management of data centers.
On the supply chain front, Georgieva identified the United States, China, and India as the primary production hubs for AI technology. Nevertheless, she emphasized that a large portion of the infrastructure build-out is being handled by Asian firms, specifically mentioning the manufacturing potential of the host nation, Thailand.
Adding another perspective to the discussion, World Bank President Ajay Banga emphasized the need for inclusive technological growth. Banga highlighted the World Bank's commitment to promoting "small AI" in emerging markets. Unlike massive large language models that require immense computing power, these smaller, specialized AI tools are designed to be accessible and practical for grassroots workers, such as farmers, healthcare providers, and educators, thereby driving productivity gains for those who might otherwise be left behind by the AI revolution.